Moody’s Ratings has revised Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive while affirming its long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer ratings at B3, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth and a significantly improved external position.
The rating agency said Nigeria’s current account surpluses, rising foreign-exchange reserves, improved FX-market functioning and stronger monetary-policy transmission have increased the country’s ability to absorb external shocks. Moody’s expects the current-account surplus to widen to about 6.1% of GDP in 2026 before moderating to 4.1% in 2027.
The assessment comes as Nigeria’s reserves reached $53.11 billion as of August 24, according to CBN data, up about $3.15 billion from $49.96 billion on June 3 and just $142 million below the January 2009 record.
Moody’s also expects real economic growth to remain around 4% in coming years, supported by stronger non-oil activity and gradually higher oil production. Inflation has meanwhile fallen to 15.4% in July 2026 from 25.3% a year earlier.
For investors, the positive outlook strengthens Nigeria’s prospects for a future sovereign rating upgrade, which could gradually improve borrowing conditions and international investor confidence. However, Moody’s retained the B3 rating, warning that weak government revenue and high debt-servicing costs remain significant constraints.
Investors will watch whether Nigeria can sustain its stronger external buffers and translate economic growth and tax reforms into higher government revenue, which Moody’s identified as important conditions for a potential upgrade.
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